Why do we live in the Age of Jester (part 4 of 6)

7 min readAug 9, 2021

The latest concept in futurology.

Crisis and opportunity

Imagine that a terrible epidemic has passed through the planet, which has claimed many human lives, up to a third of the population. Under these conditions, the usual social organisms — empires, religious institutions — predictably lost their authority, as unable to protect society from tragedy. And therefore they staggered, starting a game of splits and separatism.

Splits lead to war. Wars and the accompanying famine have battered the survivors of the epidemic — and this is minus another third of the population. Now we are talking about the period of the crisis of the late Middle Ages (XIV — the first quarter of the XVI century), which I relate to the era of the archetype Revolutionary.

How to get out of the crisis? By creativity, for which there are many reasons. First, in the conditions of general wars, there is a need for the development of technology — whoever has better weapons, whoever has a better economy, has won. Therefore, there is a request for engineering creativity. Secondly, a series of endless disasters all the time expands the Overton window, which is good for creativity, because it removes the limiting frames. And if Italy, out of habit, continues to burn thinkers like Giordano Bruno, then France, on the contrary, provides shelter to Campanella. Guess after that, why did the Italians delay the unification of the country for several centuries? Thirdly, when everything is terrible around, creativity is a means of sublimation, just so as not to go crazy.

Based on these considerations, it becomes logical to think that the crisis of the Late Middle Ages should have ended with the flourishing of creativity — that is, the Renaissance, that is, the Age of Creator. It is also logical that the further development of technology leads to the strengthening of certain far-sighted rulers who are building new global empires — Spanish, British or, eventually, Russian. Fed by intelligent lords, the creators provide an atmosphere of the cult of the patron’s personality. And, thus, the Age of Creator just as logically flows into the Age of Ruler.

The rulers continue to pour money into science, because the competition of empires requires an arms race. The development of science leads to the discovery of completely unexpected phenomena — for example, mental ones. Their mechanism is initially incomprehensible, because it is counter-intuitive, lies beyond common sense. And in response, people can’t think of anything better than to fall into mysticism. So the time comes for the archetype Magician.

But the competition of empires still has not been canceled. Therefore, science continues to develop. As more and more new discoveries come to an understanding of how to put inconvenient facts into a strict, consistent picture of the world. And in general, there is a feeling that everything is subject to the mankind. Because, thanks to science, life becomes generally comfortable. There are no former diseases, mass starvation, household inconveniences. The economic problems have been solved in general. Meet: this is the archetype Sage, the second half of the XIX — the first two-thirds of the XX centuries.

The test by well-being

Oddly enough, the state of well-being is a new challenge. Why? The basic needs of the core of human civilization are satisfied: the people there are fed, more or less provided with medicine and comfort. In big politics, there is the Nash equilibrium: a system of political alliances, thanks to which it is possible to live without big wars (in the leading regions of the world, of course).

Therefore, we no longer need as many intellectuals who are able to solve problems as before. It is no longer necessary to invest money in science and education. It is no longer necessary to support those social elevators that are based on knowledge and the ability to bring results. The smart guys have done their job, and the smart guys can leave.

As a result, the average literacy rate of the population is decreasing. Because they teach worse at school, because education does not promise career prospects. The elite is beginning to be replenished with talented careerists. Unfortunately, they are irresponsible and narrow-minded, with very simple interests.

Can an ambitious periphery appear in these conditions, which will lure the accidentally surviving smart people to itself, after which it will push the “First World” that has slowed down away from the feeder? Theoretically, yes, but it will face three problems.

First, scientific institutes continue to work — that is, to generate scientific publications. At some point, the accumulated amount of information exceeds the cognitive abilities of both a person and humanity. And how does the brain react to information overload? It starts to get dull. So the audience doesn’t want to strain their brains anymore, they want “Gangnam Style”.

Secondly, the solutions offered by smart people sometimes lead to unforeseen consequences. Heracleum sosnowskyi was good as an addition to traditional forage crops — but it turned into a dangerous weed. Nuclear power is also a good thing, but after the accidents on Three Mile Island, in Chernobyl and Fukushima, its popularity declined. The Pruitt-Igoe neighborhood looked great, but it turned into a ghetto. Planned economy is generally an excellent topic, but it is powerless against lobbying. And because of lobbyists, plans are set not according to science, but as the map will fall. And who will fix it? Nobody. The people have a brain overload, they are not able to be heroic.

Third, corruption of the elite is a product that is perfectly exported. Of course, at first, the audacious upstarts from the world’s periphery will proudly resist hedonistic models. However, sooner or later, getting bogged down in the first two problems, they will give up.

So much for the Age of Jester archetype. As we can see, everything is logical. But after all, sooner or later this mess will again cause problems, after which there will be a demand for smart people again, as in the crisis of the late Middle Ages? So, yes, but not.

Crisis and impossibility

Yes, sooner or later, the spirit of anti-intellectualism inherent in Age of Jester must lead to a crisis. Which, in turn, should again show a demand for smart people. And this is really not excluded. Regression does not necessarily have to be linear, epochs of short-term stabilization are quite likely.

So, in the history of ancient Rome there was a period of “five good emperors” or the “golden age” of the Antonines (96–180 AD). After the more than strange Caligula, Nero and similar gentlemen, reasonable people were placed on the throne, who stopped the outrages, and formally the empire reached its highest flourishing under them. Formally, because the maintenance of well-being was achieved with more and more difficulty.

Science continued to degrade, albeit at a less impressive pace. This can be seen by the way architectural thought has fallen into disrepair. This is evident in such figures as Claudius Ptolemy. In short, his scientific contribution is limited to the fact that he took the works of the astronomer Hipparchus, who lived 300 years earlier, and retold it in a language that is understandable even for morons. That is, we are not looking at a researcher, but just a popularizer. Nevertheless, the state of minds became such that it was the PR man Ptolemy that the descendants recognized as a great scientist (the name “Almagest” came from “al megast”, that is, the greatest), while Hipparchus was reliably forgotten.

And how to build a great future with such a people? Therefore, as soon as the Antonine dynasty ended (which the Romans themselves contributed to), the empire plunged into an even deeper crisis than it was under Caligula and Nero — the Crisis of the Third Century, or the era of “soldier emperors”. Because regression can be delayed by artificial methods, but only up to certain limits.

To show more precisely the mechanisms of regression, let’s remember about Covid-19. It would seem that for so many months it is already possible to accumulate enough information to understand the nature of the infection and the measures that are necessary for prevention. To comprehend the experience of countries that have applied strict quarantine. The experience of countries that did not impose restrictions at all. To compare.

But no. It is difficult. Because there is too much information. Because a lot of scientific schools have bred, and with them a lot of opinions. There are arguments in favor of all opinions at the same time, and equally convincing — scientists did not waste time, cultivated their own clearings.

This is generally an interesting phenomenon: scientific separatism. In order to make a place for themselves under the sun, young scientists are forced to create their own circles of interests, protect themselves from competitors with a fence from their terminology, etc. As a result, we have 100,500 scientific schools for one phenomenon, each with its own approach. And there is no time to scrupulously sort out all the opinions.

As a result, the choice of a particular decision by politicians is based not on reason, but on… the belief that it is the most correct one. This happens involuntarily, because otherwise there will be a collapse when no decisions will be made at all.

Let me remind you that faith is the prerogative of the Idealist archetype. He’s right next after Jester. Therefore, the attempts of great again by Trump or the preservation of the USSR by Lukashenko cannot be successful on a long horizon.